Harney Partners recently sponsored the keynote speaker of the TMA Southwest Regional Conference held in San Antonio, TX. Keith Phillips, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presented Pandenomics: Where Do We Go From Here?
As the country emerges from the COVID pandemic, Phillips shared national and regional economic outlook data, including job growth, housing, GDP and more.
Here are some high level takeaways from the presentation.
- U.S. Economy is likely to grow strongly in the second half of 2021
- Pandemic is unprecedented and has many aspects of a natural disaster instead of a typical recession
- Texas outperformed the nation last year despite a large decline in the energy sector
- Strong US growth this year and movement of people and firms out of high-density, high cost of living areas should continue to benefit Texas
- Pandemic will likely cause significant amount of long-term structural change that may delay return of some industries to pre-COVID levels
- Dallas Fed employment forecast for 2021 is 6.6 percent growth (Dec/Dec), with all lost jobs recovered by October/November